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16 Jun
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June 16, 2017 – Meadow Grove, Nebraska

Nick Nolte / Blog, Storm Chasing / / 0 Comments

June 16th featured a surface low expected to drift across Northern Nebraska into Western Iowa while a belt of strong westerlies clipped the area at 500mb. A weak cold front stretched from Minnesota through Nebraska into Colorado. Mid 60°F dewpoints existing in the warm sector across southeastern Nebraska into Iowa but low level wind fields looked to be rather weak. To me, this made the play obvious: play the surface low.

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15 Jun
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June 15, 2017 – Kansas

Nick Nolte / Blog, Storm Chasing / / 0 Comments

June 15th featured a surface low in western Kansas with a composite outflow and moisture gradient draped across the state that was forecast to drift northward throughout the day. With a dryline extended south into the Texas Panhandle, extreme buoyancy in the warm sector and south created a recipe for very large hail and strong downdrafts. A smaller tornado risk presented itself in Kansas along the composite boundary and near the surface low.

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13 Jun
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June 13, 2017 – South Dakota Tornado

Nick Nolte / Blog, Storm Chasing / / 0 Comments

After a moderately successful chase in the high plains on the 12th, another potential significant day followed. As a closed mid-level low rotated across Montana and Wyoming into the Northern Plains, a trough lagged behind that was forecast to move into the Dakotas during the evening on the 13th. At the surface, a low along the SD/NE border would drift east throughout the day while low 70 dewpoints advected into the warm sector in eastern South Dakota.

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12 Jun
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June 12, 2017 – Roads? Who needs Roads?

Nick Nolte / Blog, Storm Chasing / / 0 Comments

June 12th was shaping up to be the most significant severe weather outbreak in the high plains in 30 years. The setup favored supercells throughout eastern Wyoming into Western Nebraska. A trough was progged to amplify and eject across the high plains while strong mid level south-westerly winds overspread the area atop rich low-level moisture advecting into the area via an upslope regime.

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09 Jun
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June 9, 2017 – North Dakota

Nick Nolte / Blog, Storm Chasing / / 0 Comments

I had delayed my chasecation from May into the middle of June as CFS forecasts showed an unusual lull in severe activity during peak season, but finally the second week of June looked like decent chances for severe weather throughout the week including a potentially significant day on the High Plains on the 12th. June 9th featured a surface low in Montana that was progged to translate eastward into North Dakota bringing with it a warm front that would be modified by overnight convection. The SPC had issued a 5% tornado risk for North Central North Dakota.

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