Month: May 2017

20 May

May 18, 2017 – High Risk Bust in Kansas

May 18th presented the first high risk in the Central Kansas region in five years. At the surface, a low pressure over southeastern Colorado was forecast to drift east along a warm front through Central Kansas while a dryline sharpened throughout the day from Western Kansas down into Texas. Rich moisture was streaming north across the target area with 70°F dewpoints in Texas and mid to upper 60°F dewpoints into Kansas. Very favorable low level shear was present along the frontal zones as well as across the warm sector setting the stage for a possible significant outbreak of severe weather.Read more

20 May

May 16, 2017 – Susank, Kansas Tornado

May 16th featured a deep trough over New Mexico with a lead shortwave that was expected to overspread the Central and Southern Plains during the afternoon. Mid to upper 60° dewpoints were streaming north into the Texas Panhandle and Western Oklahoma which would lend to afternoon MLCAPE values exceeding 3,000 J/Kg. While much of area along the dryline was forecast for severe weather, there was an enhanced pocket of low level shear along the Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma border which earned a moderate risk from the SPC with 15% hatched tornado probabilities at the 1630z update.Read more

15 May

April 15, 2017 – Coldwater, Kansas Supercell

April 15th featured mostly westerly flow at 500mb across the Central Plains while a cold front was expected to migrate southward through Kansas. The intersection of this and a dryline was the focal point for severe weather for this day. The initial 13z SPC outlook placed a 2% tornado risk along the dryline from Dodge City to Childress, but was later upgraded to an extremely small 5% area centered near Woodward at the triple point. This seemed to be the obvious play for the day, but capping was a concern throughout.Read more

14 May

April 14, 2017 – Central Nebraska

Generally westerly flow aloft as a trough edged in from the Pacific Northwest while at the surface a surface low was progged to develop in NE Colorado and drift eastward while a dryline extended south through Western Kansas into New Mexico. SPC had outlined a slight risk along the dryline from Kansas south along the Texas/New Mexico border. Marginal tornado probabilities extended along the same region as well as a bit into Nebraska closer to the low.Read more

13 May

March 26, 2017 – Konawa, Oklahoma Tornado

March 26th featured a shortwave trough over eastern Colorado that was expected to track east into the Ozarks while a surface cyclone moved into Western Oklahoma. A dryline extended south from the low into Texas and would provide the focus for thunderstorm development during the late afternoon as it migrated east towards I-35. The big concern for this setup was whether or not quality moisture would advect northward in time after a scouring cold front swept higher dewpoints to the Gulf in the previous week.Read more