I spent the night in Guymon planning to chase southeast Wyoming again the following day. While a front pushed southward into North Texas, upslope flow was expected to continue pushing moisture up against the Rockies, especially along the Raton Mesa and points north.
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In a post-frontal upslope regime, easterly surface flow was forecast to transport a moist boundary layer towards the foothills, especially into the Raton Mesa and Southeast Colorado. While CAPE was expected to be meager, it would be sufficient enough for supercells to form which would then move southeast into the Plains. While tornadoes were unlikely, they could not be ruled out.
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June 3rd wasn’t really a chase day. Most of Texas was within a marginal risk with a sliver of slight along the Rio Grande. The rest of Tornado Alley was just in the general thunderstorm outline. Severe weather wasn’t really in the cards. Weak flow across the middle of the country as an omega block persisted caused nebulous flow at 500mb topping out at 30kt over Nebraska.
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Memorial Day featured a weak upper level trough across the Central Plains that was going to boost instability across Nebraska, but focus for development was a bit nebulous across the region except for a surface convergence zone across Central Nebraska which is where the SPC had outlined the slight risk.
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Memorial Day Weekend gave an opportunity for a couple of local chases. A week of marginal setups across the southwest migrated into the Central Plains to close out the holiday. The 28th featured a bit of stronger mid-level flow across Nebraska and Kansas as a trough moved across the area. This manifested with a slight risk across Western Kansas and the OK Panhandle and while tornado chances were pretty marginal they couldn’t be ruled out.
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