May 22 had the looks of a potentially significant severe episode across Northeast Oklahoma into Missouri. Given the terrain and land cover in the target area we wanted to play as far southwest as we could to avoid heading into the hills and jungle.
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May 21st featured two primary target areas, one in Southern Missouri/Northern Arkansas where SPC had outlined a 10% tornado risk, and Central Kansas where a 5% risk was delineated. The 10% threat was from redevelopment or strengthening of an existing QLCS migrating east across Eastern Oklahoma while the 5% in Central Kansas was for new development in a regime that may destabilize during the day.
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After a down day on the 19th that we used to travel from Oklahoma City to Amarillo, we awoke on the western fringes of what was forecast to be an extremely volatile day in the Eastern Panhandle of Texas into Western Oklahoma.
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The 18th featured a developing surface low in the OK/TX panhandle region with a warm front draped across northern Oklahoma where dews were expected to reach the mid 60s, with upper 60s further south towards the Red River. A negatively tilted trough at 500mb with a 70kt jet streak set the stage for a potentially significant day across Oklahoma into Texas.
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May 17th was the first day of a 10-day long chase marathon. My “chasecation” was originally scheduled to start the following week but models were showing an active period beginning with May 17th so I moved it up.
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