May 24th featured a convectively modified boundary stretching from near Wichita down into the southern Texas Panhandle where it intersected a dryline that extended further south into the Trans-Pecos region of southwest Texas. It was looking like the same area as the day before would have the best chance for severe weather.
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May 23rd featured an expansive enhanced risk of severe weather stretching from Emporia, KS southwest into the southern Texas Panhandle. A stationary front was positioned across Northern Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle. South of this feature dewpoints into the upper 60s to low 70s was advecting into the area setting the stage for severe weather as MLCAPE values were forecast to reach 3,000 J/Kg.
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May 22 had the looks of a potentially significant severe episode across Northeast Oklahoma into Missouri. Given the terrain and land cover in the target area we wanted to play as far southwest as we could to avoid heading into the hills and jungle.
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May 21st featured two primary target areas, one in Southern Missouri/Northern Arkansas where SPC had outlined a 10% tornado risk, and Central Kansas where a 5% risk was delineated. The 10% threat was from redevelopment or strengthening of an existing QLCS migrating east across Eastern Oklahoma while the 5% in Central Kansas was for new development in a regime that may destabilize during the day.
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After a down day on the 19th that we used to travel from Oklahoma City to Amarillo, we awoke on the western fringes of what was forecast to be an extremely volatile day in the Eastern Panhandle of Texas into Western Oklahoma.
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