The development of a lee trough was expected in the central High Plains with high based storms expected to develop in the Wyoming/Colorado/Nebraska Panhandle area. These storms would move east into richer moisture while a shortwave trough was forecast to spread across Nebraska.
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April 19th featured an enhanced risk encompassing the quad state area between Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, and Missouri. A low pressure that developed in Kansas was forecast to move eastward to the Missouri River by sunset by the shortwave trough that was ejecting into the Plains. This would draw low 60°F dewpoints into Iowa and that looked like a good place to be to me.
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March 31st was shaping up to be a significant weather event in the mid-Mississippi Valley as forecast models were showing a low deepening to 988 along with a 100+ kt mid level jet. It all just depended where it setup. SPC had outlined the area beginning on the Day 6 outlook on March 26th. They upgraded it to 30% the following day, then went moderate on the Day 2 and initial Day 1 that was upgraded to dual high risk areas at the 1630z update.
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This is a short entry as I technically chased twice this day but the first one was kind of a bust where I drove up to O’Neill and then drove back home after not much happened and waited for later storms. I was expecting early afternoon storms in the northern portion of the marginal risk but that didn’t pan out.
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A sagging frontal boundary with very high instability in southeastern Nebraska and northeastern Kansas was expected to be the primary target zone for severe weather with a chance for tornadoes and large hail. SPC had specifically outlined Northwest Missouri with higher probabilities but I was more interested in the western edge of the risk area for a better chance at isolated cells and to avoid the Missouri terrain.
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