March 23rd was the first local opportunity for a chase since my move to Nebraska last October. The SPC had outlined a slight risk area encompassing the dryline from Texas to Nebraska and a bit along the warm front in Nebraska. This was accompanied by a 2% tornado risk, so definitely not a guarantee, but it’d been a long time since I chase (June 25, 2016) and I was anxious to just get out.
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June 25th was the final day in a four day stretch of roaming the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains. My goal was to hopefully find a decent storm north of the Minneapolis metro area after the previous two days in the Dakotas were complete busts (although I did get some sweet landscape art).
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June 22nd, 2016 was the start of what I forecast to be a potential 4-day string of severe events across the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains. This first day looked to be in Northwestern Illinois between Sterling and Clinton, Iowa. SPC had forecast a hatched 10% risk of tornadoes east of a surface low tracking from Nebraska into Illinois and along the warm front extending to the east. It’s always hard to pass up a warm front event in Illinois so I left home around 9am and began the westward trek.
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June 15, 2016 featured a shortwave trough forecast to move across the Minnesota Arrowhead into Wisconsin along with a surface low and attendant warm front draped across the I-90 corridor. With surface temperatures in the low 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s, convergence along the front and ahead of the low seemed like a decent target for severe weather.
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May 24th was the fourth day of a mini chasecation out to The Plains and was the day that seemed to be the best of the bunch. A surface low in southwest Kansas was forecast to remain there throughout the day while a mid level trough ejected into the Central Plains.
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