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16 May
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May 16, 2017 – Susank, Kansas Tornado

Nick Nolte / Blog, Storm Chasing / / 0 Comments

May 16th featured a deep trough over New Mexico with a lead shortwave that was expected to overspread the Central and Southern Plains during the afternoon. Mid to upper 60° dewpoints were streaming north into the Texas Panhandle and Western Oklahoma which would lend to afternoon MLCAPE values exceeding 3,000 J/Kg. While much of area along the dryline was forecast for severe weather, there was an enhanced pocket of low level shear along the Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma border which earned a moderate risk from the SPC with 15% hatched tornado probabilities at the 1630z update.

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15 Apr
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April 15, 2017 – Coldwater, Kansas Supercell

Nick Nolte / Blog, Storm Chasing / / 0 Comments

April 15th featured mostly westerly flow at 500mb across the Central Plains while a cold front was expected to migrate southward through Kansas. The intersection of this and a dryline was the focal point for severe weather for this day. The initial 13z SPC outlook placed a 2% tornado risk along the dryline from Dodge City to Childress, but was later upgraded to an extremely small 5% area centered near Woodward at the triple point. This seemed to be the obvious play for the day, but capping was a concern throughout.

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14 Apr
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April 14, 2017 – Central Nebraska

Nick Nolte / Blog, Storm Chasing / / 0 Comments

Generally westerly flow aloft as a trough edged in from the Pacific Northwest while at the surface a surface low was progged to develop in NE Colorado and drift eastward while a dryline extended south through Western Kansas into New Mexico. SPC had outlined a slight risk along the dryline from Kansas south along the Texas/New Mexico border. Marginal tornado probabilities extended along the same region as well as a bit into Nebraska closer to the low.

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26 Mar
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March 26, 2017 – Konawa, Oklahoma Tornado

Nick Nolte / Blog, Storm Chasing / / 0 Comments

March 26th featured a shortwave trough over eastern Colorado that was expected to track east into the Ozarks while a surface cyclone moved into Western Oklahoma. A dryline extended south from the low into Texas and would provide the focus for thunderstorm development during the late afternoon as it migrated east towards I-35. The big concern for this setup was whether or not quality moisture would advect northward in time after a scouring cold front swept higher dewpoints to the Gulf in the previous week.

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23 Mar
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March 23, 2017 – Southwest Nebraska

Nick Nolte / Blog, Storm Chasing / / 0 Comments

March 23rd was the first local opportunity for a chase since my move to Nebraska last October. The SPC had outlined a slight risk area encompassing the dryline from Texas to Nebraska and a bit along the warm front in Nebraska. This was accompanied by a 2% tornado risk, so definitely not a guarantee, but it’d been a long time since I chase (June 25, 2016) and I was anxious to just get out.

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