March 2, 2012 – Ohio Valley Tornado Outbreak
I’m a little late on this write-up as I was waiting for Louisville to finalize their storm surveys. This day had started to crop up as a potentially significant chase day several days prior to the outbreak. One of the model parameters I always check is the SREF sigtor probability and 3 days out it was forecasting 40% for the Paducah, KY area which is a pretty high value on that model. The day before the SPC went moderate risk with a 45% hatched probability of severe weather which was recalling shades of April 27, 2011.
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