Blog

11 May

May 11, 2014 – Nebraska Mother’s Day Tornadoes

A stretched surface low in place from Texas to Nebraska with an associated warm front extending through eastern Nebraska into Iowa. A dry line extended south through western Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. Dew points in the mid to upper 60s were expected to wrap around into the triple point while surface winds in that area were forecast to be SSE to SE at 20 knots. The target for the day was the triple point area so the plan was to sit in Beatrice and await initiation.

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17 Nov

November 17, 2013 – Washington, Illinois Tornado

November 17, 2013 was a late season chase that was characterized by a rather high shear setup and some modest instability at the surface. Everything was pointing to this being an early show, like, really early. So, I left my house in Michigan at about 11z to head southwest and get in position. Even leaving at 6am, I was still worried I might not make it in time. SPC had a high risk out for the Illinois/Indiana area which included a 30% hatched probability for tornadoes. My initial plan was to stage in Kankakee and modify my position west and south from there depending on the conditions once the sun came up.

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31 May

May 31, 2013 – The El Reno EF-5

My first real storm chase was May 10, 2010. I had decided that winter to read everything I could about severe weather and figured I’d give it a shot on my own. In retrospect, it may have been a better idea to learn from someone with experience, but nevertheless I jumped in feet first and on my first storm chase caught the tornado near Wakita, Oklahoma. I still remember standing outside my car on Oklahoma Route 11a about 1.25 miles north of highway 11 watching this spinning bowl spawn vortex after vortex in the distance. It took me longer than I’d like to admit to realize that tornado was headed right for where I was standing. I still remember turning east onto highway 11 as the winds picked up and wind driven rain was blasting my car. After the fact, I realized this was probably the rear flanking downdraft, but at the time I wasn’t sure. My adrenaline was pumping and I was very anxious to get the hell out of there. Traffic on the highway wasn’t helping with my planned expedient escape. Eventually, the wind subsided as the trail of cars progressed east and the tornado carried on to our north. I still remember the first time I stopped after the escape and my hands were shaking, probably a mix of adrenaline and gripping the steering wheel, but I was on edge after that. Since that day in Grant County, I’ve been on over 100 storm chases and I haven’t been that nervous on any of them until El Reno.

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30 May

May 30, 2013 – Cushing, Oklahoma Tornado

A negatively tilted trough continued it’s eastward march and while it’s strongest winds were displaced to the northeast from the target area, convective outflow from the previous night’s storms and an eastward mixing dryline would help foster convective development across Oklahoma. The trick would be our upper support would be moving out of the area and heights would be rising. Would the instability be able to overcome this? SPC seemed to think the possibility was there and it warranted a 10% hatched moderate tornado risk for the day.

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29 May

May 29, 2013 – Western Kansas

The 29th through 31st was a decent looking setup, enough to draw me out from Michigan into the Plains for a go. A negatively tilted trough positioned over the high plains was expected to eject out across the Plains for the next few days. Stronger bands of H5 winds were expected along the dryline from southwestern Nebraska into western Oklahoma. A strengthening surface low in southwest Kansas would help back winds across the warm sector and in the vicinity of the dryline. A nocturnal low level jet was progged to strengthen and would cause increased tornadic potential for any storms that could push off the dryline.

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