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13 Jun
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June 13, 2017 – South Dakota Tornado

Nick Nolte / Blog, Storm Chasing / / 0 Comments

After a moderately successful chase in the high plains on the 12th, another potential significant day followed. As a closed mid-level low rotated across Montana and Wyoming into the Northern Plains, a trough lagged behind that was forecast to move into the Dakotas during the evening on the 13th. At the surface, a low along the SD/NE border would drift east throughout the day while low 70 dewpoints advected into the warm sector in eastern South Dakota.

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12 Jun
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June 12, 2017 – Roads? Who needs Roads?

Nick Nolte / Blog, Storm Chasing / / 0 Comments

June 12th was shaping up to be the most significant severe weather outbreak in the high plains in 30 years. The setup favored supercells throughout eastern Wyoming into Western Nebraska. A trough was progged to amplify and eject across the high plains while strong mid level south-westerly winds overspread the area atop rich low-level moisture advecting into the area via an upslope regime.

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09 Jun
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June 9, 2017 – North Dakota

Nick Nolte / Blog, Storm Chasing / / 0 Comments

I had delayed my chasecation from May into the middle of June as CFS forecasts showed an unusual lull in severe activity during peak season, but finally the second week of June looked like decent chances for severe weather throughout the week including a potentially significant day on the High Plains on the 12th. June 9th featured a surface low in Montana that was progged to translate eastward into North Dakota bringing with it a warm front that would be modified by overnight convection. The SPC had issued a 5% tornado risk for North Central North Dakota.

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26 May
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May 26, 2017 – Eastern Colorado

Nick Nolte / Blog, Storm Chasing / / 0 Comments

May 26th and 27th looked like a couple of opportunities for some storm chasing in the High Plains. The 26th looked like a decent upslope shot in Eastern Colorado while the following day looked much more potent, but looked like it could transpire across unfavorable chasing terrain in Eastern Kansas, Northeast Oklahoma and Southern Missouri.

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18 May
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May 18, 2017 – High Risk Bust in Kansas

Nick Nolte / Blog, Storm Chasing / / 0 Comments

May 18th presented the first high risk in the Central Kansas region in five years. At the surface, a low pressure over southeastern Colorado was forecast to drift east along a warm front through Central Kansas while a dryline sharpened throughout the day from Western Kansas down into Texas. Rich moisture was streaming north across the target area with 70°F dewpoints in Texas and mid to upper 60°F dewpoints into Kansas. Very favorable low level shear was present along the frontal zones as well as across the warm sector setting the stage for a possible significant outbreak of severe weather.

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