June 23rd featured a favorable setup for isolated supercells, especially in Southeastern Wyoming. Moderate daytime heating coupled with an increase in deep shear from an ejecting shortwave would provide a good thermodynamic environment while cyclogenesis would cause low level curvature in the hodographs to increase.
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The 12th looked like a pretty decent local day. A surface low in Southwest Nebraska was forecast to drift east. A cold front draped south from it through Kansas and a warm front extending eastward towards Omaha. Cloud cover was pretty strong in the morning so the play would be to watch for clearing in the warm sector for a favorable target.
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October 3rd was a day I wasn’t planning to chase. A low in North Dakota with a trailing trough stretching into the Central Plains along with cyclogenesis near the Colorado/Kansas border would provide an opportunity for storms in a narrow corridor of mid-60°F’s dewpoints. The event looked like it would go linear quick in my vicinity with scattered chances further south along the dryline into Oklahoma and Texas.
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An overnight MCS from Eastern Nebraska into Iowa would make afternoon recovery behind it and to the north questionable. If it could recover, surface based storms would be possible in the late afternoon near an occluded front stretching from a low in Eastern South Dakota south into Iowa.
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A strong dryline was expected to be present from Western Nebraska into Kansas and ascent migrating into the area, storms were expected to fire along a narrow corridor along the dryline, while further east was more uncertain because of lower instability.
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August 10th wasn’t really on my radar as a chase day, portions of Eastern South Dakota and Nebraska were in a slight risk as a weak surface low was expected to develop in North Dakota with an attendant surface trough arcing into Nebraska. Shear wasn’t that great but values were high enough to support supercells if they could develop.
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