While a big severe weather outbreak was expected along the Eastern Seaboard, back around my parts moderate westerlies overlaid atop an expected lee trough near the Nebraska Panhandle and Eastern Colorado would set the stage for scattered supercell development with all hazards possible.
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I hadn’t planned to chase this day but I knew SPC had put out a 2% tor on the day 2 so I figured I’d at least check data in the morning to see if it’d be worth a look. The morning of, SPC had upgraded to 5% on the tornado risk and it looked like a surface low that was sliding across South Dakota might be enough to back the winds along an area of confluence that was stretching from Sioux Falls towards Omaha.
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July 11th was another local chase. By local, I mean in Nebraska. A low pressure in northwest Nebraska with a front draped across the state would lift north a bit as a warm front. Temperatures into the 80°Fs and dewpoints into the lower 60°Fs would prime the air along the frontal boundary for initiation in the evening. Isolated supercells were expected eventually growing upscale into a wind threat further east towards Iowa.
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July 10th featured an enhanced risk of severe storms across Southern Nebraska and Northwestern Kansas. While tornado expectations were low, I was expecting some cool supercell action. A wind shift boundary draped across Nebraska into Northwestern Kansas would be a focal point for storms in the afternoon.
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Another day of modest easterly flow into the foothills coupled with westerly flow aloft was setting the stage for another round of severe weather across Colorado. The forecast looked like initiation north of Denver with those storms moving southeast onto the Plains then another group of initiating storms south of Colorado Springs later in the afternoon.
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