With a trough over the northwest ejecting eastward, a surface low was expected to develop near the CO/WY/NE tri-point. There was an expectation for thunderstorm development near the triple point which was forecast to be located somewhere in southwestern Nebraska. The main question was timing of the upper wave and whether or not storms would initiate on the front.
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June 15th offered an opportunity for a relatively local chase. A remnant MCV from overnight convection was present in west-central Nebraska and a frontal boundary extended from a low in Canada south across Nebraska then southeast into the Ozarks. Daytime heating was forecast to promote strong instability along and north of the front.
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June 7th was one of those days that ends up being a great chase even without tornadoes. Southerly surface winds were forecast to transport moisture north into Nebraska bringing dewpoints into the upper 50°s to near 60°F in the Sandhills. MLCAPE values were expected to reach 1500 J/Kg. Storms were expected to initiate in north-central Nebraska and migrate southeast eventually growing upscale overnight.
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After driving back home the previous evening, I decided to trek back out for this event. Another low was forecast to develop in Colorado and Southwestern Nebraska with a dryline extending south to Texas. This was to trek east through Nebraska and bring a moderately buoyant environment with it as mixed layer cape values would exceed 2,000 J/Kg.
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A surface front was forecast to setup across Western Nebraska with some troughing in Colorado into New Mexico. Storms were forecast to initiate in the higher terrain and along the boundaries into Nebraska and migrate eastward into the plains throughout the day and evening.
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