Tag: shelf cloud

08 Jun

April 29, 2016 – Southwest Oklahoma

stratosigma / Blog, Storm Chasing / / Comments

Day 6 of a week long chase vacation featured an enhanced risk of severe weather along the Red River. A negatively tilted mid-level trough was ejecting into The Plains while at the surface, a low in the southern Texas Panhandle was forecast to migrate east along the Red River bringing upper 60s dewpoints into Southern Oklahoma.
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29 Sep

May 8, 2015 – Texas

stratosigma / Blog, Storm Chasing / / Comments

Day two of a multi-day chase trip began in Wichita Falls where I stayed the night before after a successful tornado intercept on the previous day near Sanger. Target for the day was southwest of Wichita Falls, so no one was in a rush to leave the hotel. Skip Talbot, Jennifer Brindley and Phil Bates were caravanning with Sean Casey and the TIV in Doghouse and we discussed the day’s prospects before going our separate ways. A cutoff low was still over California and expected to move a little east during the day while the southern branch of diffluent flow at 250mb was expected to move over the southern areas of the target area. A cold front extended from Iowa through Oklahoma and into the Texas Panhandle and into New Mexico where it was stationary.  A dryline intersected the front in New Mexico and was expected to mix eastward into Texas throughout the day. Outflow from the overnight MCS was expected to lift north through the day, possibly stalling out south of the Red River. That was the focus for severe weather as the air mass south of it was expected to become strongly unstable.
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18 Jan

June 3, 2014 – Central Nebraska

stratosigma / Blog, Storm Chasing / / Comments

After an uneventful day on the 2nd, Williamson and myself found ourselves awaking in Grand Island, Nebraska to a promising outlook for severe weather. The stage was set for unsettled weather across Nebraska characterized by an unstable atmosphere and a favorably placed warm front. A low pressure migrating along a warm front from Wyoming to Nebraska would be the focal point for severe weather. A southerly low level jet of 40 to 50 knots was expected to overspread the target area while surface temperatures reached the upper 80s, dewpoints into the upper 60s which would promote a heavily buoyant atmosphere marked by surface based CAPE values exceeding 4,000 J/Kg. Hodographs also indicated a strongly veered wind profile throughout the atmosphere and bulk shear values of 60 to 70 knots.
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17 Jan

May 31, 2014 – What am I doing in Wyoming??

stratosigma / Blog, Storm Chasing / / Comments

May 31st was the second day of a 9 day mini-chasecation. The first couple of days featured a small shortwave trough traversing the northern part of the High Plains and Black Hills which provided slight chance opportunities at severe weather around the Montana, South Dakota and Wyoming areas. An area of low pressure was forecast to strengthen over north central Wyoming with a diffuse front stretching east into South Dakota and a trough extending from the low south into eastern New Mexico.
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29 May

May 29, 2013 – Western Kansas

stratosigma / Blog, Storm Chasing / / Comments

The 29th through 31st was a decent looking setup, enough to draw me out from Michigan into the Plains for a go. A negatively tilted trough positioned over the high plains was expected to eject out across the Plains for the next few days. Stronger bands of H5 winds were expected along the dryline from southwestern Nebraska into western Oklahoma. A strengthening surface low in southwest Kansas would help back winds across the warm sector and in the vicinity of the dryline. A nocturnal low level jet was progged to strengthen and would cause increased tornadic potential for any storms that could push off the dryline.
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