Tag: high risk

12 Nov

November 17, 2013 – Washington, Illinois Tornado

stratosigma / Blog, Storm Chasing / / Comments

November 17, 2013 was a late season chase that was characterized by a rather high shear setup and some modest instability at the surface. Everything was pointing to this being an early show, like, really early. So, I left my house in Michigan at about 11z to head southwest and get in position. Even leaving at 6am, I was still worried I might not make it in time. SPC had a high risk out for the Illinois/Indiana area which included a 30% hatched probability for tornadoes. My initial plan was to stage in Kankakee and modify my position west and south from there depending on the conditions once the sun came up.
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14 Apr

April 14, 2012 – Kansas Outbreak

stratosigma / Blog, Storm Chasing / / Comments

April 14 was the big day of the trip. Storm Prediction Center had been targeting this area for seven days and it was rather obvious when the day 1 came out with a 45% hatched tornado risk that things could get serious, really quick. We awoke in Chickasha, OK early in the morning anticipating a marathon run to southern Nebraska. We headed out at 6:30am CDT and blitzed north on I-35. Our hope was the cap would hold on to storms at the triple point until we could get there.
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02 Mar

March 2, 2012 – Ohio Valley Tornado Outbreak

stratosigma / Blog, Storm Chasing / / Comments

I’m a little late on this write-up as I was waiting for Louisville to finalize their storm surveys. This day had started to crop up as a potentially significant chase day several days prior to the outbreak. One of the model parameters I always check is the SREF sigtor probability and 3 days out it was forecasting 40% for the Paducah, KY area which is a pretty high value on that model.  The day before the SPC went moderate risk with a 45% hatched probability of severe weather which was recalling shades of April 27, 2011.
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